Apr 16, 2013
2013 U.S. Corn Planting Off to a Very Slow Start
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their first weekly Crop Progress Report, NASS reported that 2% of the 2013 U.S. corn crop had been planted as of Sunday compared to 16% last year and an average of 7%. Outside of the far southern locations, the only Midwestern states reporting corn planting were Missouri (8% planted), Illinois (1% planted), Ohio (1% planted), and Kansas (3% planted). It simply has been too cold or too wet in most of the Corn Belt to plant corn.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like much corn will get planted this week either. The northwestern Corn Belt has been hit especially hard with adverse spring weather especially in North Dakota. The state received heavy snow over the weekend and there is more snow in the forecast for later this week. This will add to the snow pack in the state and very little melting will occur this week with high temperatures mostly in the 30's.
There is going to be severe flooding along the Red River in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota when all this snow starts to melt and the flooding may not occur until late April or early May. The region along the Red River is so flat that the flood waters will spread out for many miles in all directions. The flat nature of the terrain also makes it slow for the flood waters to recede. Once the flood waters do recede, it generally takes two to three weeks before the soil firms up enough for planting to begin and that is only if there is no additional rainfall.
Therefore, it looks inevitable that significant planting delays will occur in North Dakota, western Minnesota, and parts of South Dakota. In the March Prospective Plantings Report, NASS estimated that 4.1 million acres of corn would be planted in North Dakota (9thin the country), 9 million acres would be planted in Minnesota (4thin the country), and 5.9 million would be planted in South Dakota (6thin the country). So, these three states combined would have 19 million acres of corn in 2013.
How many corn acres may not be planted? - With spring planting delays in the northwestern Corn Belt, the question now is how many acres of corn may not get planted and eventually switched to soybeans or claimed under crop insurance. I always try to be conservative in my initial crop estimates and then adjust the estimates as conditions warrant. Therefore, I would estimate that 1-3 million acres of corn in the northwestern Corn Belt will not get planted and that the non-planted corn acreage could go much higher. In a worst case scenario, the non-planted corn acreage might be as high as 5-6 million acres, but I also think it is way too premature to be talking about those types of numbers.
Wet conditions delays planting in central Corn Belt - The central Corn Belt is going to be very wet this week and planting delays may occur here as well, but there is no snow to melt in the central Corn Belt, so once it warms up and dries out, planting could begin. Even though it's going to be a delayed start in the central Corn Belt, I don't think we can say at this point that some corn acres may not get planted. There is still time to get all the corn planted in the central Corn Belt provided that heavy rains don't keep farmers out of the fields for an extended period of time.
Corn planting in southern locations delayed as well - Corn planting has also been slow in the far southern states with Mississippi 54% planted (average is 82%) and Arkansas 36% planted (average is 62%). The corn crop in Louisiana is 100% planted. In these southern locations, farmers wanted to have their corn in the ground a month ago, so continued delays in this region may also result in less corn acreage. NASS estimated that Louisiana would plant 600,000 acres of corn, Mississippi would plant 1,050,000 acres and Arkansas would plant 1,000,000 acres. Combined, these three states were expected to plant 2.65 million acres of corn. At this point, it's probably premature to say that not all the corn will be planted, but if the current wet conditions persist for two more weeks, then I think some of this southern corn may not get planted as well.
Corn planting intensions of 97.3 million acres may not be achieved - NASS estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 97.3 million acres of corn in 2013, but adverse weather may prevent the farmers from planting all their intended corn acres. As a result, I now think the 97.3 million corn acres will be the high water mark for the year (no pun intended) and that we will be subtracting acres from that number as the planting progresses through the spring. How many acres we subtract will depend on the weather for the remainder of the spring especially in the northwestern Corn Belt.