Aug 03, 2010
Brazilian Meteorologists Predict Dry Spring in Southern Brazil
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Meteorologists in Brazil are already warning farmers in southern Brazil to expect a dryer than normal spring planting season which will start later this month. Gilberto Diniz from the Federal University of Pelotas, which is located in the southern part of Rio Grande do Sul, predicts that the transiting into a La Nina in the eastern Pacific will result in below normal rainfall in southern Brazil starting by the end of September. The dryer than normal pattern is expected to persist until at least the end of 2010.
Meteorologists in Brazil feel this El Nino has the potential to be more intense than the last one which occurred in 2008/09.
Of all the major agricultural states in Brazil, the state of Rio Grande do Sul generally has the lowest rainfall during the growing season. The rainfall in the state is the result of frontal systems pushing in from Argentina, whereas in central Brazil, the rainfall is the result of moisture moving southward from the Amazon Region. The state is too far south to receive much if any moisture from the Amazon Region.
For the last two decades, the tendency in the state is for the climate to get dryer. In fact, between the years 1986 and 2006 there have been 10 droughts in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. During the decade of the 1960s and 1970s dry weather in the state was a much rarer occurrence.
Rio Grande do Sul is the number one rice producing state in Brazil and the third largest producer of soybeans and corn. Farmers in the state plant their corn crop first as soon as the soil moisture and soil temperatures are adequate for germination. If the conditions are favorable, corn planting in the state could start by the end of August. If the conditions are not favorable, corn planting can be delayed until September or generally the first half of October. Soybean planting in the state will generally start in early October and end in late November. Many of the soybeans in the state are double cropped after wheat and the wheat is generally harvested in November.
The rice crop in the state is flood irrigated and the meteorologists are already advising the farmers and state officials to allow the reservoirs to fill as much as possible with any winter rains the may still occur. This is to insure that there is enough stored water to irrigate the rice during what could be a long and hot growing season.