May 07, 2010
La Nina Conditions by Late Summer Could Impact U.S. Yields
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In general, the springtime weather has been very good thus far across much of the Corn Belt. The one notable exception was the heavy rains that fell in Tennessee, Kentucky, and other parts of the mid-South earlier this week. These heavy rains resulted in standing water in low lying areas that will probably drown out some of the corn, which will then need to be replanted. Even if the corn was not drowned out, the pounding rains could also cause soil crusting that could impeded germination.
Other than those localized problems, the weather has generally been very favorable for germination and stand establishment of the corn and soybeans crops. There are concerns though about the type of weather that may occur later in the summer. Meteorologists report that the El Nino should reach a neutral position by early summer. The question is will it stay neutral through the summer or will it move into a La Nina condition (cooler water temperatures) by later in the summer. If it would transition into a La Nina condition by July or August, that could mean dryer weather for the Corn Belt, which would be a concern.
A record planting pace for the U.S. corn crop might help the crop to get ahead of any potential problems that could be caused by late summer dryness. The vast majority of the 2010 U.S. corn crop is being planted 1-2 weeks ahead of normal. The early-planted corn will pollinate early, fill grain early, and mature early. Under that type of scenario, late summer dryness or even an earlier than normal frost, would have less of an impact on the potential yields compared to other years.
Looking forward to the 2010-11 South American growing season, La Nina type of conditions generally result in dryer than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. This could delay planting in South America and result in lower yield potentials. Even without a La Nina, it is going to be very hard for South America to repeat its record breaking yields two years in a row. If a La Nina does develop, than the 2010-11 yields in South America would definitely be lower than the 2009-10 yields.