Oct 08, 2010
Conab Estimates Declines in Soy and Corn Production in 2010/11
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
After a year of record grain production in Brazil in 2009/10, Conab released their first evaluation of the 2010/11 growing season on Thursday indicating that the total Brazilian grain production in 2010/11 will be slightly less than in 2009/10. The total grain acreage in 2010/11 is estimated at between 47.3 to 48.0 million hectares compared to the 47.3 million hectares planted in 2009/10. Total grain production is estimated at between 145.7 to 147.9 million tons compared to the record production of 148.8 achieved in 2009/10, or a reduction of 1 to 3 million tons.
The 2010/11 Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at between 23.7 to 24.2 million hectares compared to 23.4 million hectares planted in 2009/10. While the soybean acreage is expected to increase 1.3% to 3.1%, the total soybean production is estimated at 67.6 to 68.9 million tons compared to 68.7 million tons produced last growing season. Soybean acreage is expected to increase in Brazil in 2010/11, but soybean yields are expected to fall short of the record yields achieved in 2009/10. This could be especially true if the forecast for dryer than normal weather during October, November, and December turns out to be accurate.
The 2010/11 corn acreage is estimated at 12.7 to 12.8 million hectares, which is 1.3% to 2.1% less than last year. Total corn production is estimated at 51.8 to 52.4 million tons compared to 56 million tons last year or a reduction of 6.5% to 7.5%. Corn yields are also expected to be lower than the record yields achieved during the last growing season.
Cotton production in Brazil is expected to increase sharply in response to strong cotton prices. The Brazilian cotton acreage is expected to be 1.01 to 1.07 million hectares, or an increase of 22% to 29% compared to 2009/10. Total cotton production is expected to be 2.43 to 2.57 million tons or 32% to 39% more than the 1.84 million tons produced in 2009/10. Cotton yields in 2009/10 were hurt by the early onset of the dry season in Mato Grosso, which is the largest cotton producing state in Brazil.
The survey for this report was conducted between September 19 to the 25th. The yield calculations were based on five year average yields which excluded years considered to be outliers but they did include anticipated yield increases due to technological advances.