Oct 25, 2009
Brazil And The U.S. Could Be Competing For Soybean Export Business In Early 2010
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In a normal year, the United States dominates the soybean export markets between the months of October and March after which Brazil and Argentina take over. That's in a normal year, but 2009 is turning out to be very unusual year. A record slow harvest pace in the U.S. coupled with an extra early start to the rainy season in central Brazil means that Brazil and the U.S. might actually be competing for export business between late January and early March.
The first soybean planted in Brazil are always planted in the state of Mato Grosso and farmers in the state are only allowed to start planting soybeans after September 15. For the last two years, the start of the rainy season was delayed until mid October, but in 2009 the rains started in early September and the farmers took advantage of the abundant soil moisture and started to plant their 2009-10 soybean crop as soon as the soybean ban was lifted on September 15th. Many of the first soybeans planted in Mato Grosso were early maturing soybeans that mature in 90-100 days. These early soybeans will be mature and ready for harvest by early January. Therefore, the Brazilian soybean harvest is going to start very early in 2010 when traditionally only the U.S. has exportable supplies of soybeans.
Even though the Brazilian soybean harvest will start in early January, that does not necessarily mean that all these soybeans will move into the export channels. Some Brazilian soybean processors have shut down extra early for their annual maintenance because they ran out of soybeans. The processors that have been shut down for several months will be eager to purchase new crop soybeans as soon as they become available. Once the processors have enough supplies to start their operations, the remainder of the soybeans will then move into the export channels competing with U.S. supplies.