Dec 09, 2009
Conab Increases Brazilian Soybean Estimate, Lowers Corn Estimate
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab) released their December estimate of the Brazilian crop production yesterday and they increased their estimate of the 2009-10-soybean crop by 1.5 million tons to 64.5 million tons. If achieved, this would represent an increase of 7.4 million tons (12.9%) over last year's production. They increased the 2009-10 Brazilian soybean acreage to 20.0 million hectares, which is a 6% increase or 1.3 million hectares more compared to last year. If verified, this would represent record soybean acreage for Brazil. The yield of the 2009-10 soybean crop was estimated at 2,801 kg/ha (40.6 bu/ac), which is the average yield for the last five years.
Brazilian farmers opted to plant more soybeans due to the lower cost of production, greater liquidity, more resistance to drought, and better prices compared to corn. Domestic corn prices in Brazil remain very low due to large carryover supplies and reduced exports. Additionally, early spring conditions were wet in southern Brazil, which delayed the planting of the corn, and opened up the way for additional soybean acreage.
The rains came early this year to central Brazil and as a result, the soybean crop was planted early as well. In Mato Grosso, the soybean crop was planted approximately two weeks earlier than normal. This is in contrast to the last two planting seasons, which were delayed due to dry conditions. The state of Mato Grosso is expected to produce 18.6 million tons, which would represent 29% of Brazil's total production. The state of Parana is second with 13.1 million tons (20% of Brazil's total) followed by Rio Grande do Sul at 8.4 million tons or 13% of Brazil's total.
As far as soybean yields are concerned, Mato Grosso is also the top yielding state of the major producers at 3,038 kg/ha (44 bu/ac), followed by Parana at 3,000 kg/ha (43.5 bu/ac) and Goias at 2,970 kg/ha (43.0 bu/ac).
The full-season corn production in Brazil is estimated at 32.0 million tons or about 5% less than last year's drought affected crop. The acreage of the full-season corn crop fell to 8.3 million hectares, which is 910,000 hectares (9.8%) less than last year's crop. Most of the switching from full-season corn to soybeans occurred in southern Brazil where farmers in Parana planted 345,000 less hectares (27.2%) and farmers in Rio Grande do Sul planted 129,000 less hectares. There were also reductions in full season corn acres in central Brazil where farmers in Goias planted 151,000 less hectares and Mato Grosso planted 46,000 less.
About half of the drop in production in the full-season corn crop will be made up with anticipated increase in safrinha production. The safrinha corn production is estimated at 18.1 million tons, which is about 800.000 tons more than last year's crop. The safrinha acreage is estimated to be the same as last year, but the projected yield is much higher. This year, the safrinha yield is estimated at 3,701 kg/ha (57 bu/ac) compared to 3,540 kg/ha (54.5 bu/ac) last year. If realized, the safrinha crop would represent 36% of Brazil's 2009-10 total corn crop.