Jun 15, 2010
Drowned Out Corn Results in Reduced Harvested Acreage
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
After weeks of saturated conditions it appears that some of the drowned out corn will not be replanted to corn or any other crop, but instead, it will be claimed as prevent plant under the provisions of the crop insurance program. This could be a particular problem in northern Nebraska, southern Iowa, northern Missouri, central Illinois, central Indiana, northwestern Ohio, and southern Michigan. In virtually all of these areas it will be too late to plant corn once the soils dry out. If a farmer purchased crop insurance with eighty five percent coverage, he would be much better off economically to collect the insurance payment instead of planting another crop at such a late date.
If that does actually turn out to be the case, then the corn acreage needs to be adjusted. As a result, I am going to estimate that the final corn planted acreage will end up at 88.5 million acres or 300,000 acres below the Prospective Planting Report issued in March. Therefore, the corn harvested acreage for grain production is now estimated at 81.8 million acres (92.5% of the planted area) and if the rain continues, it acreage could move even lower.
The heavy rains are also affecting the soybeans as well. All of the soybeans that have been under water for several days will have to be replanted as well. Many times it is assumed that if it gets too late to replant corn, soybeans will be planted instead, but that may not be the case in a number of areas this year. It is entirely possible that it stays too wet to even replant soybeans and it would be better to take the insurance payment instead of taking the risk of planting soybeans so late.
For now, it is assumed that the soybean acreage will increase 200,000 acres from the 78.1 million acres estimated in the March Prospective Planting Report. Therefore, the soybean planted area is now estimated at 78.3 million acres with 77.1 million harvested acres (98.5% of the total).
As with the corn acreage, the soybean acreage is still in flux and unfortunately there will not be a concrete estimate of the planted acreage until probably the August Crop Report.