Sep 08, 2009
Argentina To Produce 53 mt Of Soybeans In 2009-10
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather - After an extremely dry 2008-09 growing season, the winter rains have been better in eastern and southern Argentina, but still sparse and insufficient in western and northern Argentina. The soil moisture is being recharged in Buenos Aires, in Entre Rios, and in northeastern Argentina. The rainfall in Cordoba, Santa Fe, and La Pampa has been too light to recharge the soil moisture. Temperatures in Argentina during the winter have been normal to below normal. I would categorize the Argentine weather as showing signs of improvement, but not good enough to completely over come the effects of the 2008-09 drought.
Field activity - Argentine farmers have wrapped up planting a very disappointing wheat crop. Estimates are that the wheat acreage could be as low as 2.8 million hectares, which would be 40% less than the 4.7 million hectares planted last year. The five-year average wheat acreage in Argentina is approximately 5.4 million hectares.
Argentine farmers have just started to plant their 2009-10-corn crop and it too is probably going to be very disappointing. It is estimated that the 2009-10 Argentine corn acreage could be as low as 2.0 million hectares, which would be 19% less than last year's 2.46 million hectares and 25% below the five-year average of 2.7 million hectares. The total 2009-10 Argentine corn crop is estimated at 14.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than the very disappointing 2008-09 crop. Argentine farmers are just now starting to plant their 2009-10-corn crop with less than 5% of the crop in the ground.
The big change in Argentina is going to be the soybean crop. It is expected that Argentine farmers will switch some of the corn acreage into soybean production. It is also expected that some of the wheat acreage that was not planted will also go into additional soybeans. Additionally, there will be less double crop soybeans and more full season soybeans due to drastic reductions in the wheat acreage. Soybeans are favored over corn because they are cheaper to plant; they are planted later in the spring (November is the main planting month) allowing more time for the soil moisture to recharge, and the federal government doesn't restrict the exports of soybeans. Granted, the export tax is higher for soybeans (35%) and lower for corn, but the government is always trying to restrict corn exports while they have a hands-off policy concerning soybean exports.
Therefore, it is estimated that Argentine farmers will plant 19.0 million hectares of soybeans in 2009-10, which would represent an increase of 1.5 million hectares over last year's acreage (17.5 million hectares) or a 9% increase. The Argentine soybean crop is estimated at 53.0 million tons, or 21 million tons more than the drought afflicted crop of 2008-09. The nationwide yield is estimated at 2,789 kg/ha or 40.4 bu/ac. These estimates are based on a return of more normal weather to Argentina due to El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific. Generally, an El Nino results in better than average rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina, but as always; the growing season weather is yet to be determined.