Sep 10, 2010
La Nina Continues to Worry Brazilian Farmers
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
With less than a week to go before farmers are allowed to start planting their soybeans (they can start planting on September 16th), farmers in central Brazil are concerned about the possibility of La Nina delaying the arrival of the rains needed to germinate their 2010/11 soybean crop. Without adequate soil moisture, farmers will not risk planting their soybeans in very hot and dry soil.
Meteorologist are expecting that a moderately strong La Nina will persist until at least mid-2011 and as a result, they are predicting that the rains will be below normal in much of Brazil's soybean production areas during the months of September, October, and November. The last La Nina event occurred in 2007/08.
Soybean planting in central Brazil usually reaches its peak during the month of October, but soybeans can be planted until the end of November generally without any loss of yield potential. Soybean yields start to decline only if the planting is delayed until late November or early December.
More importantly are the effects of delayed planting on the safrinha corn crop (the word safrinha means little harvest). Nearly all the corn grown in central Brazil is planted after the soybeans have been harvested. If soybean planting is delayed, then the corresponding planting of the safrinha corn crop is delayed as well. The planting window for safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is generally from January 1st until February 20th. Safrinha corn can be planted after that date, but the crop runs the risk of running out of moisture before the grain filling process is completed.
The municipality of Sorriso, which is located in central Mato Grosso, is the largest soybean producing municipality in Brazil responsible for 600,000 hectares of soybean production. During the 2009/10 growing season, 240,000 hectares of safrinha corn were planted after soybeans in that municipality alone. If the safrinha corn planting is delayed past the end of February, farmers in the municipality will likely reduce their safrinha corn acreage instead of running the risks of very low corn yields.