Oct 14, 2010
Delayed Start Could Mean Less Safrinha Corn in Mato Grosso
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
A delayed start to the summer rains in central Brazil has resulted in a slow and uneven start to soybean planting in Mato Grosso. A delayed start to soybean planting in Mato Grosso doesn't necessarily mean that the eventual soybean yields will be adversely affected, but it does have the potential to adversely affect the safrinha corn crop in the state. safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is planted after the soybeans are harvested and Mato Grosso has the largest safrinha corn crop in Brazil. Approximately 95% of all the corn planted in the state is planted after the soybeans are harvested. The safrinha corn is generally planted in January and February and harvested in late May or June. For each week that the soybean planting is delayed, that means the planting of the safrinha corn will be delayed as well.
The latest estimates from Imea (the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics) indicates that only 2% of the 2010/11 soybean crop in Mato Grosso has been planted (106,000 hectares of the estimated 6.2 million) compared to 14% that was planted last year at this time. Two of the principal soybean producing regions of the state are Lucas do Rio Verde, which is located in central Mato Grosso and Sapezal, which is located in western Mato Grosso. In these two regions, the farmers have only managed to plant 3% and 6% of their soybean crop respectively compared to 30% and 25% at the same time last year.
Generally, all the soybeans planted during the month of October in these two regions are followed by a second crop of corn. If the soybeans are planted in November or later, there is not enough time to plant a second crop of corn. If the safrinha corn is planted too late, the crop will probably run out of moisture before it completes its grain filling phase, thus resulting in disappointing yields. That is exactly what happened to the 2009/10 safrinha crop in Mato Grosso. The last rains in Mato Grosso occurred during the first week of April, 2010 when a lot of the safrinha corn was just starting to fill grain. The early onset of the dry season forced the crop to mature earlier than normal and as a result, the corn yields were disappointing.
Since only about 2% to 3% of Mato Grosso's soybeans have been planted as of the middle of October, there is a very high probability that the 2010/11safrinha corn acreage in the state will be less than what was originally anticipated.