Sep 30, 2010
Presidential Elections to be Held in Brazil on October 3rd
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Presidential elections will be held in Brazil next Sunday, October 3. The leading candidate is Ms. Dilma Rousseff, who was Chief of Staff for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Her principal opponent is Mr. Jose Serra the former governor of the state of Sao Paulo. In recent polling, Rousseff has been leading with more than the 50% needed to win in the first round of voting.
Rousseff has pledged to continue Lula's agenda especially his social programs that have showered the lower economic classes in Brazil with subsidizes for everything from monthly living allowances to allowances for food purchases, school tuition, school supplies, rent subsidizes, milk purchases, etc. etc. etc. Lula has essentially started a welfare system where none has existed before.
Mr. Serra for his part doesn't necessarily oppose Lula's social programs, but he maintains that emphasis must be placed on other aspects of the Brazilian economy not just the social safety net. He wants to lower the sky high interest rates in Brazil and keep the Brazilian currency from strengthen further, both of which hurt Brazilian businesses and exports.
As far as agriculture is concerned, the vast majority of Brazilian farmers support Mr. Serra. The only segment of Brazilian agriculture that supports Ms. Rousseff are small family farmers and they do so because of Lula's various social programs not because of his agricultural policies. Most medium and large scale farmers are very worried about Rousseff's support of the Landless Poor Movement which advocates agrarian reform by breaking up large farms and redistributing the land to the rural poor.