Oct 13, 2009
Conab - Brazilian Soy Production Up 9-10% In '09-10, Corn Even
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian Soybeans - Last week Conab (Companhia National de Abastecimento) issued their first estimate of the 2009-10 Brazilian growing season. They estimate that the 2009-10 Brazilian soybean crop will be between 62.3 and 63.2 million tons, which would be 9-10% larger than last year's crop (5.3 to 6.2 million tons more than 57.0 produced in 2008-09).
The 2009-10-soybean acreage is estimated at between 22.2 to 22.6 million hectares, which would be 2.6 to 4.2% (555,000 - 920,000 hectares) larger than in 2008-09 (21.7 million hectares were planted in 2008-09). The biggest increase is expected in Parana where the soybean acreage is expected to increase 5-7% (180,000 - 265,000 hectares) followed by Rio Grande do Sul where the acreage will be up 2-4% (77,000 - 153,000 hectares) and Mato Grosso where the soybean acreage will increase 1.5-3.0% (87,000 - 175,000 hectares).
Soybean yields are estimated at 2,794 kg/ha compared to last year's yield of 2.627 kg/ha (40.5 bu/ac compared to last year's 38.1 bu/ac), which would be an increase of 6.3%. The yields in Parana are expected to increase 27.9% (2,990 kg/ha vs. 2,337 kg/ha) and the yields in Rio Grande do Sul are expected to increase 1.4% (2,100 kg/ha vs. 2,070 kg/ha). In contrast, the yields in Mato Grosso are expected to decline compared to last year (3,027 kg/ha vs. 3,082 kg/ha).
Brazilian Corn - On their report last week, Conab estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 50.9 to 52.1 million tons, which would be equal to or slightly larger than last year's 50.0 million tons. The full season corn acreage is expected to decline to 8.4 to 8.7 million hectares, which would be down 5-8% from last year's 9.2 million hectares. The biggest decline is expected in Parana where the full-season corn acreage is expected to decline by 18-22% followed by Goias down 15-20% and Rio Grande do Sul down by 5-8%.
The safrinha corn acreage is expected to be the same as last year at 4.9 million hectares and the total safrinha production is estimated at 18.1 million tons, which is 4.6% more than the 17.3 million tons produced last year. The increased production is based on improved yields in 2009-10 (3,697 kg/ha in 2009-10 vs. 3,563 in 2008-09).