Aug 11, 2010
Another Antarctic Blast Hits Southern Brazil
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
This has been a winter for the record books with freezing temperatures, heavy frosts, snow falls, icy roads, stranded travelers, frozen fruit trees, and dead cattle, and this has all occurred in southern Brazil! In the higher elevations of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, it snowed again last week for the third time this winter. As a curious side note, Brazilian tourist flocked to the town of Gramado in Rio Grande do Sul last week in the hope of actually seeing snow. Gramado, which is located at a higher elevation, is a famous tourist destination in southern Brazil. If a Brazilian spent his or her entire life in Brazil, the chance of actually seeing snow in Brazil is extremely rare, but this year, it's happened several times already.
Besides being a curiosity, what could be the impact of these cold temperatures on agriculture in Brazil and Argentina?
Delayed spring planting in southern South America - The first impact is going to be a potentially delayed start to the spring planting in southern Brazil. Farmers in southern Brazil would like to start planting some of their early full season corn starting within two weeks, but that does not seem likely at this point. The corn planting window in southern Brazil begins in late August and extends until generally early October. The farmers like to plant their corn early so that it pollinates before the hot days of summer. Corn yields generally start to decline if planting is delayed past early October.
If corn planting is delayed too long, farmers in southern Brazil will not hesitate to switch some of their intended corn acreage to additional soybeans acreage. Soybeans can be planted later when the soil moisture improves, soybeans are cheaper to grow, and they offer a better return due to a higher price compared to the depressed domestic corn prices in Brazil.
La Nina could result in dryer than normal spring and early summer Brazil and Argentina - Meteorologists in Brazil are already warning farmers that the developing La Nina could bring dryer than normal weather to southern Brazil during the spring and early summer. They feel the dryer than normal conditions could extend until at least the end of December. This is another potential reason why Brazilian farmers may be hesitant to plant corn. Full season corn in southern Brazil usually pollinates during late November or December. If the forecast calls for hot and dry conditions during that time period, farmers may be hesitant to plant corn knowing that there could be a problem with pollination.
The last La Nina was in 2007/08 and it resulted in a moderately severe drought in southern Brazil and a very severe drought in Argentina. Current forecast are calling for this La Nina to be potentially more intense than the last one.
Dry weather could impact wheat in Argentina and Brazil when it breaks dormancy - The forecast for a dry spring and early summer could be a concern for the wheat crop in southern Brazil and Argentina. Conditions are currently dryer than normal in western Argentina and should this dryness persist until the wheat breaks dormancy, it could lead to a lower yield potential for the wheat. We must all remember though that wheat has nine lives and that wheat yields can still end up being satisfactory even though the growing season is less than ideal.