Apr 01, 2010
2010 Prospective Planting Report - More Corn And Soy In U.S.
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The USDA released the 2010 Prospective Planting Report yesterday estimating that U.S. producers will plant 88.798 million acres of corn and 78.098 million acres of soybeans. If verified, the corn acreage would represent an increase of 2.3 million acres compared to 2009 or an increase of 3%. For soybeans, it would represent an increase of 0.6 million acres compared to 2009, or an increase of less than 1%, and a new record for soybean acreage in the United States.
The report confirmed the market's expectations for larger corn and soybean acreage. The final planted acreage will depend on the market's reaction to the acreage estimates and quarterly stocks report (price response) and the weather during April and May. The next significant report from the USDA will be the Planting Report, which will be released at the end of June.
The weather in the Midwest looks promising for April 1st. The jet stream has buckled north this week allowing warmer than normal temperatures into the central and eastern half of the country. In fact, some temperatures this week might approach record levels. These warm temperatures, coupled with abundant sunlight and southerly winds will dry the topsoil quickly and encourage early fieldwork. Unless there is a drastic change in the weather pattern, fieldwork could progress normally this spring, which would certainly be better than the last two springs when planting was delayed due to wet weather.
An early start to corn planting would indicate the possibility of above trend line corn yields in 2010. In the U.S., there is generally a direct relationship between the time the corn is planted and eventual yields, given normal weather during the growing season. There are several reasons why early-planted corn generally yields better than later planted corn.
First and foremost, the earlier the corn is planted the faster it reaches its maximum leaf area. Ideally, this maximum leaf area should occur as close as possible to the summer solstice (June 21-22) when the Northern Hemisphere receives its maximum solar radiation. Another advantage of early planting is that the corn also pollinates early when there is less chance of hot and dry conditions that could impede the pollination process. And lastly, early planting generally affords a longer frost-free period, which lowers the possibility of a frost prematurely ending the growing season before the corn is fully mature.
While early planting is generally advantageous for corn, that is not necessarily the case for soybeans. The reproductive cycle of soybeans is triggered by the amount of daylight and nighttime the plant receives. Planting soybeans earlier than normal doesn't make the plant go through its life cycles any faster. Soybeans planted at the end of April generally do not have an advantage compared to soybeans planted in the middle of May. It is a disadvantage though if soybeans are planted much later than normal. Late-planted soybeans (generally planted past the middle of June) generally do not have the opportunity to achieve a large leaf area before the plant is triggered to start its reproductive cycle. Therefore, the plant produces less photosynthetic material, which generally results in lower yields.
Generally, an early start to corn planting could result in additional corn acres being planted above what was expected in the Prospective Planting Report, but price variations between the time when the Prospective Planting Report is released and corn planting actually occurs could affect that tendency.