May 28, 2010
Estimates Lowered Again for Safrinha Corn Crop
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In its most recent report, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics once again lowered its estimate of Mato Grosso's safrinha corn production. They now estimate the crop at 8.4 million tons, which is 4% lower than their April estimate (8.73 million tons) and 11% lower than their March estimate (9.5 million tons).
The problem for the crop is dry weather of course, especially in the northern and western regions of the state. Farmers in the state started to plant their safrinha corn in January and February when rainfall was plentiful, but starting in early April, the rains virtually ended. Earlier this week, there were some widely scattered showers across portions of the state, but they were not heavy enough to reverse the decline in the corn yield. In the driest portions of the state, the rainfall has only been 5% of normal over the last seven weeks.
Mato Grosso farmers planted 2 million hectors of safrinha corn in 2010, which was nearly 20% more than the 1.67 million acres planted in 2009. With the increased acreage, it was expected that the safrinha crop would set a record this year, but that will no longer be the case because the current estimates are already lower than the record production of last year which was 8.5 million tons. The forecast for central Brazil continues to indicate dryer than normal conditions and if that forecast is verified, the crop estimate may continue to decline.
Farmers have started to harvest some of the earliest planted corn and reports indicate that yields are approximately 30% below what had originally been expected. The harvest of the later planted corn will begin in early June and reach its peak during the second half of June.