Nov 11, 2009
Is The Drought Really Over In Argentina?
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Many farmers in Argentina are wondering if the drought that severely afflicted the country last year has actually ended. Many areas of western and northern Argentina have only seen a fraction of their normal rainfall thus far this spring. The soil moisture in these areas was not recharged during the winter and therefore there is no reserve of soil moisture for the emerging crops to tap into. Recent temperatures have also been very hot, which is aggravating the situation even more.
The driest areas are the western, northwestern, and northern production regions including the provinces of: La Pampa, western Buenos Aires, western Cordoba, northern Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero, Tucuman, San Luis, and Chaco. Various local municipalities have already been declared disasters and water rationing has begun. The dry weather could not have come at a worst time for the farmers who are still struggling to recover from the worst drought in a generation that reduced the 2008-09-soybean crop by at least one third and left hundreds of thousands of cattle dead.
The current dry weather is slowing the planting of corn and soybeans in Argentina. Nationwide, approximately 15% of the soybeans have been planted, which is less than half the normal pace. Virtually none of the intended soybeans in the dry areas have been planted. The planting window for soybeans in Argentina will extend for three or four more weeks, but the longer that planting is delayed, the lower the yield potential for the crop. In Argentina, soybeans can be planted until early January, but soybeans planted that late have a much-reduced yield potential.
Farmers in Argentina must also be careful not to be too anxious to plant their soybean crop. It can be very hot during this time of year in Argentina. The worst thing that could happen is if they plant their soybeans with only enough surface moisture to insure germination and then it stays hot and dry for several more weeks. When that happens, the small soybean seedlings sprout and then die and the crop needs to be replanted.
In the drought-afflicted areas, corn planting is 10-40% complete, which is much slower than the normal planting pace. The planting window for corn in Argentina will begin to close in approximately two weeks. Corn planted after mid-November generally has a lower yield potential due to the fact that pollination is pushed back to the middle of summer and the possibility of frost occurring before the late-planted corn reaches maturity.
Soybeans are the only crop in Argentina where the acreage was anticipated to increase in 2009-10, but if the dryness persists into December, then the soybean acreage will not live up to expectations. Without a recharge of the soil moisture, both the soybean and corn crops will need regular rainfall all throughout the growing season in order to maintain the crop's yield potential.