Aug 24, 2010
Continued Development of La Nina Worries Argentine Farmers
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Argentine farmers are keeping a close watch on the development of La Nina in the eastern Pacific. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts that La Nina will persist until at least early 2011, if not longer. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA agrees with the Australian prediction.
What worries farmers in Argentina is the fact that La Ninas are generally associated with lower than normal precipitation during the growing season in much of the country. The last La Nina event, which occurred between mid-2007 and mid-2008, had a significant impact on crop production in Argentina. In contrast, an El Nino is generally associated with above normal precipitation in much of Argentina. That is what occurred last growing season and as a result, crop yields were very good across the country.
The ultimate effect of a La Nina will depend also on how much moisture is in the soil at the start of the growing season. The greater the amount of residual soil moisture that is available, the better the crops can withstand short periods of dryness. If the soil moisture is already dry at the start of the growing season, timely rainfall becomes even more important.
In many areas of Argentina, it has been a relatively dry winter and springtime may arrive with moisture deficits already on hand. The regions of Argentina that have adequate soil moisture at the present time include the central, eastern, southeastern, northeastern, and northern parts of the growing region. This would generally include the provinces of Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and Corrientes. The western, southern, and northwestern regions have generally experienced a dryer than normal winter season. This would include parts of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and La Pampa.
The first crop that could be affected by dry weather is the winter wheat crop in Argentina. The crop will be breaking dormancy soon and additional moisture will be needed to insure a good crop.