Dec 31, 2009
Prospects For The Soybean And Corn Crops In Parana Are High
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The farmers in Parana are very pleased with the prospects for their 2009-10 soybean and corn crops. Generous rains have been falling all throughout the growing season and there has not been any excessive heat or dryness.
Soybeans
According to the Department of Rural Economics in Parana (Deral), the soybean crop in Parana is 55% in vegetative development, 31% flowering, 13% filling pods, and 1% mature. The condition of the crop is rated as 96% good and 4% average. The farmers in Parana increased their soybean acreage by 9% this year to 4.3 million hectares and it is expected that the total soybean production in the state will hit 13.3 million tons, which is 43% more than the 9.3 million tons produced in 2008-09. The 2008-09 growing season in Parana was very dry and it impacted the production of all the summer crops - soybeans, corn, and edible beans. The weather thus far this growing season has been exactly the opposite.
Farmers in Parana have been slow to forward contract their anticipated soybean production with only 2% sold thus far. They are concerned about the price of course, but they also are watching very closely the currency exchange rates. The Brazilian currency is trading at 1.74:1 to the U.S. dollar, which is significantly stronger than the 2.33:1 it was trading at one year ago. The stronger the currency, the less they get paid for the soybeans. They are hesitant to sell their crop because they are hoping that the Brazilian currency weakens (or the dollar strengthens) before they are forced to start selling their crop in order to pay their bills. The soybean harvest in Parana will start in January and reach its peak during late February and early March.
The near-term forecast is calling for continued good growing conditions going into the new year. The two things that could still disrupt the soybean crop in the state are a severe outbreak of soybean rust or heavy rainfall disrupting the soybean harvest. Currently, there are 65 confirmed cases of rust being reported in Parana (323 cases nationwide) and that number is expected to continue to increase. Heavy disease pressure does not necessarily mean that soybean yields will be impacted, but it does mean that farmers will need to work harder in order to keep the disease under control. Heavy rainfall at harvest time can also be a problem in Brazil.
Corn
The weather conditions for the full-season corn crop in Parana have also been very good. The corn crop in the state is 25% in vegetative development, 33% pollinating, 39% filling grain, and 3% maturing. The condition of the corn crop is rated 95% good and 5% average. Parana farmers reduced their full-season corn acreage by 28% compared to last year (0.9 million hectares in 2009-10 vs. 1.27 million hectares in 2008-09). Due to the good growing conditions, the total production is expected to fall only 2% compared to last year (6.4 million tons in 2009-10 vs. 6.58 million tons in 2008-09).
It will take one or two more well timed rains in the state to assure a very good corn crop. The full-season corn harvest will begin in February and peak during March. The farmers are hoping that a large production will offset disappointing domestic corn prices in Brazil. Brazilian corn exports during 2009 have been 12% lower than expected and the country is carrying over more than 11 million tons of corn from the 2008-09 growing season. With a large corn crop looming on the horizon, if the corn exports do not increase significantly in early 2010, there will probably be very little price recovery for the domestic corn market.