Nov 10, 2009
Scientists Warn That Global Warming Could Affect Brazilian Food Production
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian scientists from Embrapa, in conjunction with the University of Campinas, released a study last week that examined the possible affects of global warming on food production in Brazil. In their analysis, they concluded that coffee, soybeans and corn would be the crops most affected by warming temperatures.
They examined two possible scenarios for warming. In the worst-case scenario, they anticipated a warming of 2 C to 5.4 C degrees and in the best-case scenario; they anticipated a warming of 1.4 C to 3.8 C degrees. The crops they looked at included cotton, rice, coffee, sugarcane, edible beans, sunflowers, manioc root, soybeans, and corn. They anticipated the possible affects in the years 2010, 2020, 2050, and 2070.
In their study, coffee production would be the crop most affected by the warming temperatures. The coffee plants, they concluded, might have a lower rate of flowering due to the hotter and dryer conditions and as a result, lower yields. They also concluded that coffee production could migrate further south in Brazil due to the warming temperatures. They also recommended that plant breeders should take into account the possibility for warmer temperatures when they select breeding criteria for developing new coffee varieties.
The major row crop in Brazil is soybeans and prior studies concluded that soybean production could also be affected by warming temperatures. Scientists feel that soybean production in Brazil could potentially peak by 2050 and then start to decline. The major impact on soybeans would be due to the hotter and dryer conditions in central Brazil where most of the soybean expansion has occurred in past decades. A longer dry season and reduced rainfall during the growing season, could result in lower yields.