Feb 17, 2010
Mato Grosso Soybean Crop Shrinking
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Reporting From Mato Grosso, Brazil - We just returned from a three day trip through about 60% of the soybean producing regions of Mato Grosso. We drove from Rondonopolis in southeastern Mato Grosso to Primavera do Leste, Campo Verde, Chapada dos Guimaraes, Cuiaba, Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde, Sorriso, Sinop, Colider, Alta Floresta and then back to Rondonopolis. We drove north toward the Amazon River until the asphalt ended, and we had no desire to continue traveling down dirt roads during heavy rains. In southern Mato Grosso, the vegetation is typical cerrado. In northern Mato Grosso, the vegetation is Amazon Rain Forest where the trees are unbelievably huge, it is truly an amazing forest. We traveled 2,400 kilometers during 36 hours of driving. We have lots of pictures which we will post on our web site after we return to the U.S.
Mato Grosso weather is hot and rainy - The weather in Mato Grosso is hot, humid, and rainy. It rained all three days of our trip. On the first day of our trip it rained very hard all day. On days two and three there were scattered showers throughout the day. As I write this report (Saturday, February 13) it is about 85 degrees and raining here in Rondonopolis.
The rainfall in Mato Grosso started heavy in December and it is continuing at least through the middle of February. Farmers are complaining about the constant overcast conditions and the lack of sunshine. A farmer in Sinop told us that there has only been three sunny days thus far during February. Here in Rondonopolis, we received 26 inches of rainfall in December and 34 inches in January. February has been dryer with only 7 inches thus far. We have been in Mato Grosso for twelve days and it has rained on ten of those days.
Mato Grosso farmers grow three different maturities of soybeans - Soybean farmers in Mato Grosso plant extra early, medium, and late maturity soybeans. Where we traveled, most of the early maturity soybeans have already been harvested and the safrinha corn has already been planted. The early maturity soybeans that have not been harvest look as if they have been mature for at least several weeks. Most of the medium maturity soybeans are either mature and just waiting to be harvested, or in the process of maturing. The later maturing soybeans are still green and filling pods.
I was not impressed at all with the early and medium maturity soybeans. Most of the early maturing soybeans I saw waiting to be harvested were very short, less than knee high and the yield potential was no more than 20-25 bushels per acre. The medium maturity soybeans were better, maybe in the range of 35 to 40 bu/ac. Only the late maturing soybeans looked good, maybe in the range of 45-55 bu/ac.
Of the soybeans that were mature (and not harvested), it was obvious that they had been mature for quite some time and that the farmers were just waiting for an opening in the weather to resume harvesting. The soils in Mato Grosso allow the water to drain very quickly, but even with that being the case, it has been raining so much that there was water standing everywhere in central Mato Grosso. Some of the soybeans that have been waiting the longest to be harvested were starting to turn black from mold. I didn't check the seed quality (it was too muddy), but I am sure the quality is deteriorating as well.
Everywhere we drove, there were soybeans ready for harvest, but we only saw less than a half dozen combines in the field actually harvesting soybeans. On the other hand, we saw dozens of combines parked at the end of the fields waiting for the weather to dry out.
Farmers are actively trying to control rust - In the few areas where the soils were dry enough to support field work, farmers were actively spraying for rust with ground equipment and in a few cases, crop dusters. In many fields it was obvious that rust had already started to take a toll on the soybeans because you could see yellow spots in an otherwise green fields.
Mato Grosso soybean yields are disappointing - I do not think the soybeans in Mato Grosso are going to yield as much as earlier anticipated. It was very obvious to me that the early and medium maturity soybeans were disappointing, which leaves only the later maturing soybeans to pick up the slack. The later maturing soybeans will be much better yielding, but only if the rainfall starts to ease. I do not know what the weather will be, but meteorologist here are predicting that this week will be wetter than last week and that is not the type of news soybean farmers want to hear.
Total Mato Grosso soybean production is shrinking - I think the total Mato Grosso soybean production might be a million tons less than currently estimated and losses might end up being more than that. A 10% loss in the state would equate to a loss of 1.8 million tons and I think that could be possible.
Farmers planting safrinha corn and safrinha cotton - I think it is safe to say that every early maturing soybean field has been planted to a second crop of either corn or cotton. The farmers may be cutting back on the inputs for the safrinha corn, but it does not appear that they are cutting back on the safrinha corn acreage. In the few fields where they were actually harvesting, the farmers were also planting the safrinha corn within minutes of the soybeans being harvested. The no-till corn planter was following right behind the combine.
The safrinha corn that has been planted, ranges from just germinating to some corn nearly knee high already. The corn looks good, it has a good color and it is benefiting from the hot and humid conditions. There is also more safrinha cotton being planted than ever before. The new short-stature cotton, that matures in about 170 days, can be planted through the end of February and it was obvious that farmers were planting more safrinhacotton than before.