Mar 24, 2010
Safrinha Corn Planting Nearly Complete, Moisture Deficits Developing
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
While farmers in Brazil are wrapping up the planting of the safrinha corn crop, they are wondering if there will be enough soil moisture to carry the crop through grain filling. Rainfall in many areas of Brazil has diminished significantly since the beginning of March and if this is actually the winding down of the rainy season, it's entirely possible that late-planted safrinha corn could run into moisture deficits before the crop matures.
The two leading safrinha corn-producing states in Brazil are Mato Grosso and Parana. In Mato Grosso the planting is complete and approximately 15% of the corn has started to pollinate. This is the corn that was planted during the first half of January. The state of Mato Grosso received very heavy rains during January and February, but the rainfall has declined significantly during March. Thus far during March, the rainfall in central Mato Grosso has been 50 to 100 mm below the long-term average. March has been even dryer in southeastern Mato Grosso where the soil moisture has dropped to just 40% of capacity. The corn in southeastern Mato Grosso is still in vegetative development and the dry conditions are starting to impact the crop.
The highest concentration of safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is located in the municipalities of Sorriso and Lucas do Rio Verde, both of which are located in central Mato Grosso. In these regions, the vast majority of all the harvested soybeans are followed by a second crop of corn planted in the same field. The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso will continue to need moisture through the end of May and into June when the early harvest begins.
In Parana more than 90% of the safrinha corn has been planted and the soil moisture in the state remains good, approximately 80% of capacity. Corn development in the state has been normal and approximately 10% of the corn in the state has already started to pollinate. The safrinha corn in the state will need moisture through the end of June when the early harvest begins.
In the state of Sao Paulo, approximately 60% of the safrinha corn has been planted and soil moisture conditions remain good in the state.
While the total safrinha crop is yet to be determined, its already a near certainty that when Brazilian farmers go to sell their safrinha corn, the domestic price for corn in Brazil is going to be below the minimum price set by the government and probably below the cost of production as well. That was the case in Mato Grosso last year and its probably going to be even worse this year. Prices were so low last year in Mato Grosso that 85% of the corn was sold to the government at the minimum price set by the government, which is R$ 13.98 per sack of 60 kilograms. The current market price for corn in central Mato Grosso is in the range of R$ 9 per sack.