Sep 22, 2010
Initial Soybean Planting Delayed at Least Three Weeks in Brazil
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Farmers in Mato Grosso feel the summer planting may be delayed at least three weeks compared to last year. In most regions of the state it has not rained since early April and the soil is hot, the sun is intense, the temperatures are extreme, and the relative humidity is low. No one will plant under these conditions unless they have irrigation available.
The first widespread soybean planting in Brazil usually occurs in the municipality of Lucas do Rio Verde in central Mato Grosso, but no rain has fallen in the region and planting will be delayed at least three weeks until early October. The municipality is known for its early planting of early-maturing soybeans. As a result, the first new-crop soybeans to hit the market almost always come from Lucas do Rio Verde. If they can get their soybeans planted during the second half of September, they usually start harvesting soybeans by the end of December. If they don't plant until the first half of October, the harvest will not begin until mid-January at the earliest.
In sandier soils, agronomists advise that planting should not start until there have been at least two good rains totaling 50 mm of rainfall (2 inches). In soils with higher clay content, it usually takes 100 to 150 mm (4 to 6 inches) to get the soil in condition for planting.
The largest soybean producing municipality in Brazil is Sorriso, which is located in north-central Mato Grosso. Farmers in the municipality planted 600,000 hectares of soybeans in 2009/10 and harvested nearly 2 million tons of soybeans. The farmers in this municipality will not start planting soybeans until they receive at least two good rains, but that has not yet happened. Approximately 240,000 hectares of safrinha corn will be planted in the municipality after the soybeans are harvested.
The delayed start to the summer rains in central Brazil could affect the 2010/11 growing season in the following ways:
Soybean yields not affected by delay (yet) - A delay in planting soybean will by itself not reduce the yield potential of the soybeans in the state. The planting window for soybeans in Mato Grosso is from the middle of September to the end of November. Planting would need to be delayed until later in November before the soybean yield potential would start to be affected. The soybean planting window is similar for other regions of central Brazil as well.
More important to the potential soybean yield would be if the rains were spotty or inconsistent during October, November, and December when the crop is in vegetative development or flowering. This could affect the germination, stand establishment and eventually the yield.
Soybean exports from Brazil could be delayed - A delayed start to the planting season could also mean a delayed start to the soybean exports out of Brazil. Nearly all the early exported soybeans out of Brazil originate in Mato Grosso. If planting in Mato Grosso is delayed three weeks or more, then the start of soybean exports out of Brazil would be delayed three weeks or more and that could end up being an important market factor.
Safrinha corn planting will be delayed - A delay in planting the soybeans in central Mato Grosso also means a delay in planting the safrinha corn crop in the state as well. The normal planting window of safrinha corn in the state is between early January until about February 20th. safrinha corn can be planted after that date, but the yield potential for the crop really starts to fall after that date. There are about 50,000 hectares of safrinha cotton also planted in Mato Grosso and if the soybean planting is delayed, so too would the planting of the safrinha cotton.